Thursday, October 20, 2006 - Guatemala and Venezuela
have persistently fallen short of the two thirds majority needed to secure GRULAC’s (the UN’s Latin American and Caribbean caucus) seat in the UN Security
Council (UNSC) after more than two days of voting and 22 gruelling rounds of
balloting. Now, into the third day of voting, the results read: Guatemala 110,
Venezuela 77. Voting was suspended on Tuesday until today (Thursday October 19),
giving Venezuela and Guatemala’s ringmaster and vociferous supporter – the
United States – time to lobby other governments into supporting their respective
camps, or to consider a compromised third nominee.
The Rise of a Third
Candidate
Considering that Guatemala’s and Venezuela’s aspirations might continue to
falter, it would be prudent for UN delegations, which may be looking around for
that third-country candidate to arise, to consider the Caribbean nation of St.
Lucia. St. Lucia is an English-speaking country whose population of nearly
170,000 enjoys high literacy standards, relatively low levels of corruption, a
transparent banking system, a worthy environmental reputation, and a good record
on combating drug trafficking. It is in every way a “model democracy,” and
unlike Guatemala, it has no ghosts in the closet. It is also one of ten
Caribbean nation states which have never been elected to the UNSC, as Cuba,
Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago have been the region’s only nations that have
been honoured with this post.
St. Lucia has also
demonstrated sensitivity to issues of stability and mutual respect for national
sovereignty. Its highly regarded Prime Minister, Dr. Kenny Anthony is looked
upon as one of the Caribbean area’s most respected figures. Unlike Guatemala it
has an exemplary human rights record and has been very responsive to
international agreements. In the mid 1990s, St. Lucia actively backed UNSC
Resolution 940 to restore democracy in Haiti after three years of brutal control
by a military junta, thus supporting former President Aristide’s return to power
peacefully. Prime Minister Anthony stood behind President Aristide even after he
was forced to flee Haiti in 2004, insisting that the leader continued to be the
lawful president of Haiti. After that, St. Lucia, along with most of the CARICOM
nations, refused to recognize the U.S.-backed interim government of Gérard
Latortue. Nevertheless, Prime Minister Anthony’s distaste towards Washington’s
de facto ousting of President Aristide has not challenged his commitment to the
poverty-wrecked citizens of neighbouring Haiti. Since Aristide’s last forced
departure, Anthony has repeatedly headed delegations seeking to integrate Haiti
into the CARICOM common market and also has participated in the monitoring of
Haitian elections. As such, St. Lucia deserves to receive considerable
appreciation for its consistent endeavours to favour cooperation and the use of
peaceful means over unilateral action and the resort to force, as validated by
its regional leadership and unqualified neutrality.
U.S. Support
Despite its disagreement with Washington on the handling of Haiti, St. Lucia has
proven to be a strong ally of Washington’s legitimate aspirations, signing
numerous bilateral treaties – including a Maritime Law Enforcement Agreement and
an Extradition Treaty – in a joint effort to thwart illegal drug trafficking to
the U.S. and Europe. The island is also a regional leader in encouraging foreign
direct investment (FDI), boasting one of the most diversified manufacturing
sectors in the region and a promising tourism industry. Not surprisingly, the
majority of tourists visiting the paradisiacal island are U.S. citizens,
suggesting that good diplomatic relationships between the two are highly
beneficial for both parties.
Venezuelan Support
If Venezuela’s candidacy continues to falter, and the UNSC seat remains outside
of Caracas’ and Guatemala City’s grasp, Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez might like to
see a member of CARICOM, a bloc of Caribbean nations friendly to Caracas, obtain
the Council’s non-permanent seat. Venezuela’s relationship with St. Lucia has
been entirely close and constructive as the small nation is one of the 13
Caribbean nations that signed Venezuela’s Petrocaribe initiative, in which
state-owned Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) will supply oil with an
extraordinarily low one percent interest rate in an effort to relieve poorer
nations from high energy costs, while servicing the subsidized costs of
petroleum imports.
In addition, Caracas would likely support St. Lucia’s bid because it refused to
join President Bush’s “coalition of the willing,” choosing not to support the
invasion of Iraq, an action viewed by President Hugo Chávez’s government as U.S.
imperialism at its apogee.
Viability of St.
Lucia’s Candidacy
Almost all of the other “appropriate” Latin American countries are disqualified
for one reason or another, transforming St. Lucia into a model candidate for the
UNSC seat. Since Guatemala and Venezuela would have something approaching a de
facto veto over who would replace it in the race, with geographical proximity
being a key determining factor, Caracas would find the nearby island with which
it has always had cordial relations and a most suitable neighbour, to provide an
ear for its voice. Guatemala, on the other hand, might be less inclined to
favour St. Lucia’s candidacy due to Prime Minister Anthony’s recent statement
which called for “independent” voices which will not “take instructions from one
or other countries” to obtain a seat on the Council; referring to Washington’s
takeover of Guatemala’s scenario to obtain the UNSC seat. Nevertheless,
considering that Washington and Guatemala might be interested in manifesting a
good will gesture to the 15-member CARICOM group, they might be interested in
pow-wowing with the small but worthy island.
Given these realities, St.
Lucia could be the most appropriate candidate to end the fierce politicking now
taking place between the U.S. and Venezuela, and its name might be very well
tossed into the race in the next round of voting since neither Venezuela nor the
U.S. have much to gain by having this process being drawn out any longer.
(This analysis was
prepared by COHA Research Associate Eytan Starkman
October 19th, 2006)
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